As old powers fade, those who embrace emerging technologies, sustainability, and strategic resilience can lead in the emerging global order
The global balance of power is undergoing a profound transformation. AI, tariffs and declining US power are reshaping trade, shifting global influence, and forcing business and political leaders to adapt. Artificial intelligence is becoming a powerful new frontier. At the same time, US protectionism is disrupting economic stability, and long-term patterns of empire decline are re-emerging. These trends are interconnected—and they present both risk and opportunity.
This article explores the decline of traditional powers, the evolving role of the US in global trade, sustainability implications, and the potential for AI to redefine global dominance.
The shifting economic landscape
Recent US trade policies are having measurable impacts. In early 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.3%. This decline shows that protectionist tariffs are not just political theatre—they affect real economic growth. A surge in imports ahead of new tariffs cut five percentage points from GDP growth. Inflation remains high.
At the same time, rapid advances in AI are transforming industries. Forecasting, investment, and business models are all becoming more complex. The IMF recently lowered US growth projections to 1.8% for 2025, increasing the likelihood of a recession.
These developments demand agile, forward-thinking strategies.
Pressure on the US dollar’s dominance
The US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency is under pressure. Central banks have reduced dollar holdings from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2025. Tariffs and sanctions are accelerating this shift as countries diversify reserves and trade in alternative currencies.
At the same time, AI and fintech innovations are reshaping global finance. Central bank digital currencies and digital wallets are rising. These tools are weakening the dollar’s dominance and prompting new financial centres to emerge.
For businesses, this means rethinking currency risk and exploring digital finance solutions.
Sustainability in a fractured trade environment
Tariffs on clean technology are slowing progress. More than $14 billion in US clean energy investments were cancelled or delayed in 2025.
AI can accelerate the green transition. It can optimise supply chains and improve energy efficiency. But it also has a growing carbon footprint. AI could consume more electricity than Bitcoin by the end of 2025. Data centres powering AI require massive energy, often sourced from fossil fuels. This tension calls for urgent innovation in clean computing and regulation to ensure AI aligns with environmental goals.
In response to the energy demands of AI data centres, several major US tech companies are pushing to massively increase nuclear power in the energy mix. However, this solution raises serious concerns, primarily because the problem of nuclear waste disposal remains unresolved. Given these risks, reliance on nuclear energy is not an ideal path forward.
Instead, the focus should shift towards alternative solutions such as expanding renewable energy sources like wind and solar, improving energy storage technologies, and advancing energy-efficient AI hardware and software. Investing in decentralised green microgrids and enhancing grid flexibility can also help accommodate rising demand sustainably.
Firms committed to ESG must act. This means building resilient supply chains, investing in green AI, and partnering across sectors to balance profit with purpose.
Geopolitical risk and strategic resilience
The US-China trade war has evolved into a broader geopolitical and technological rivalry, extending into AI, cybersecurity, semiconductors, and military innovation. Severing economic ties removes a key stabilising buffer between the world’s two largest economies, increasing the risk of open conflict.
Meanwhile, Europe is forging a more unified geopolitical stance. Despite Brexit, the EU and UK are increasingly aligned on key global issues, particularly in response to shifting US policies. This alignment is evident in their commitment to sustainability initiatives, as well as in their joint efforts to address the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
On sustainability, the UK and EU have enacted ambitious policies to accelerate the green transition. The UK’s Great British Energy Act 2025 establishes a publicly owned energy company to drive clean energy development, while the EU continues to advance its Green Deal objectives. Although regulatory approaches differ—such as the UK’s labelling regime versus the EU’s disclosure framework—both entities share a commitment to achieving net-zero emissions and promoting sustainable investment.
In this landscape, businesses operating internationally must prepare for a multipolar world. Building strategic resilience now means regionalising operations, strengthening partnerships, and developing agile, cross-border risk management capabilities.
The inevitability of empire decline
No empire lasts forever. History shows common signs of decline such as political division, military overreach, social unrest, and external threats. The Roman Empire’s fall was a gradual process marked by internal political instability, economic struggles, and relentless barbarian invasions.
Similarly, the British Empire’s decline was driven by economic strain, nationalist movements in its colonies, and the enormous costs of two world wars. Its orderly withdrawal from colonies reshaped global power and marked the transition to a new international order.
Today, the United States is not doomed but has likely passed its peak power. Despite challenges like political polarisation and economic pressures, it remains the strongest global power and is expected to maintain this position for many years.
China and Russia face demographic and economic challenges that suggest their power will also decline. In contrast, the ASEAN economies are projected to grow around 4.1% in 2025, supported by youthful populations and expanding markets. India also continues rapid growth, with the IMF forecasting around 6.2% expansion in 2025, driven by demographic advantages and reforms.
Together, ASEAN and India are reshaping the global balance, contributing to a multipolar world where new centres of power rise as old empires evolve or decline.
A slow and chaotic transition
Empires do not fall overnight. The process of decline is typically prolonged and turbulent, marked by periods of crisis and temporary recovery. As the old order weakens, institutional trust erodes, markets become volatile, and uncertainty dominates decision-making. New powers and coalitions rise to challenge the status quo, often leading to geopolitical realignment and the emergence of competing spheres of influence.
This transition phase can last for decades, as seen after the fall of Rome or the gradual dissolution of the British Empire. It is likely to involve not only social unrest and shifting alliances but also widespread policy changes and the redefinition of international norms.
For organisations, the key to survival lies in the ability to anticipate shifts in the global environment. Those who can read the signals of change and adapt will be best positioned to thrive in this unpredictable era.
Will AI become the next dominant empire?
AI is unlike any previous source of global power. It is not bound by geography, borders, or traditional governance structures. Instead, it is fast, decentralised, and increasingly autonomous—capable of learning, adapting, and making decisions at a scale and speed beyond human capacity. The US and China are locked in a fierce competition for AI leadership, investing billions in research, infrastructure, and talent. However, as AI systems grow more advanced, there is a real possibility that control could slip from the hands of any single nation or alliance, giving rise to a new, non-human form of influence.
This scenario raises profound questions for the future: Who will govern AI? What ethical standards and values will guide its development? How can we ensure transparency, accountability, and human oversight in systems that may soon outpace our ability to regulate them? The answers are far from clear, but what is certain is that leaders must act now to establish robust, ethical frameworks for AI—prioritising transparency, safety, and inclusion to ensure that this new “empire” serves the interests of humanity as a whole.
Final thoughts
We are entering a new era defined by uncertainty, complexity, and rapid transformation. AI, tariffs and declining US power are reshaping global systems in ways that challenge established norms and demand new approaches. At the intersection of technology, trade, and geopolitics lies a landscape filled with both risk and opportunity.
Success in this environment will come to those who invest in innovation, ethical governance, and strategic agility. As the old empires fade and a new global order emerges, the true leaders will be those who can anticipate change, embrace disruption, and help shape the future rather than simply react to it.
More than ever, the next chapter of history belongs to adaptive organisations that embrace change.
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